This issue weighed on my mind when making my decision this year, although I ended up pulling the trigger on a '24 PAS. Whatever its prospects, it's a solid machine and could well end up being my favorite out of 15 motorcycles owned in my lifetime.
I don't think it will be cancelled this year but I would expect that if sales don't pick up in the next 4 or 5 years the PAS will go the way of Buell, the V-Rod, the Street 500 and 750 platforms, along with smaller efforts like the XR1200X and the Rocker C. And possibly the Wire in the near future. Management will announce the retreat with some mumbling about refocusing on core markets, etc.
What will make them defer this decision is the fact that, as management, cancelling the PAS will expose themselves to the charge that they aren't capable of launching new platforms. They don't want to be stuck with that charge either. They are in a tough spot.
But, ultimately, if the PAS is not a commercial success they will kill it.
The problem is partly due to the fact that H-D is a publicly-traded company. Being a publicly traded company has the upside that you have access to more capital, but the downside is that the owners (mainly funds) know little and care even less about the core business. In theory, this is mitigated by having a Board of Directors who vote on behalf of the shareholders but who do actually know the core business. However, most boards are occupied by persons looking to burnish their own standing in the industrial community and have little interest in sticking their necks out.
The best thing that could happen to Harley is to be bought out by a group that actually is passionate about the sport, like the family-led buyout that took the company private from AMF in the early '80s. I don't see that happening, though.
But, for those of us who are current owners, assuming the line is cancelled in, say, three years, that means spare parts and support will be provided by the company for ten years after; until 2037.
By then I'll be ready to get that trike.